By:Mo Saeed
A critical examination exposes not only the weakness of the arguments against Somaliland but also how major powers like Turkey are leveraging a weakened Somalia to enforce a strategic deadlock that contradicts legal history and regional stability.
The Legal Vacuum at the Heart of the Union
The debate is not merely political but rests on a foundational legal question: was the 1960 union lawful.
Evidence shows it was not, making Somaliland’s re-emergence a restoration of sovereignty, not an act of secession.
Following independence on June 26, 1960, the State of Somaliland passed “The Union of Somaliland and Somalia Law” to formalize the merger with the soon-to-be-independent Somalia. The plan was for an identical international treaty to be signed by both sovereign states.
However, the Somalia legislature in Mogadishu did not ratify this document. On June 30, 1960, it approved an Act of Union “in principle” but requested the governments “establish a definitive single text” for later approval. This definitive, mutually-signed treaty was never created. Legal scholar Paolo Contini concluded that “the Union of Somaliland and Somalia Law did not have any legal validity in the South,” and the “in principle” approval was “not sufficient to make it legally binding”. Subsequent attempts to formalize the union retroactively in 1961 could not erase this initial legal defect.
The distinction between “restoration” and “secession” is fundamental to understanding the dispute:
Basis of Claim |
Restoration of Sovereignty (Somaliland’s Argument) |
Secession / Breakaway (Opponents’ Framing) |
Legal Foundation |
Reassertion of a pre-existing, independently achieved sovereign status. |
Attempt to carve a new state from an existing, sovereign nation. |
Key Event (1960) |
A voluntary union based on a defective, non-ratified treaty that failed to legally extinguish sovereignty. |
A completed political merger creating a new, singular sovereign entity (the Somali Republic). |
International Law |
Argues state continuity was merely interrupted, not terminated. |
Violates the principle of territorial integrity (uti possidetis juris) of the post-1960 Somalia. |
This unresolved legal ambiguity is central to Somaliland’s case for international recognition. Its 1991 declaration was not a bid for novelty but a return to a sovereign status that, it argues, was never lawfully surrendered.
Turkey’s Strategic Calculus: Acting as Guarantor While Exploiting Vulnerability
Turkey’s vehement opposition to Somaliland’s recognition must be scrutinized beyond diplomatic solidarity.
Since 2011, Turkey has embedded itself as Somalia’s foremost external patron, providing over $1 billion in humanitarian aid, building its largest global embassy in Mogadishu, and operating a major military base that has trained thousands of Somali troops. This positions Turkey as Somalia’s de facto security guarantor, a role solidified by a 2024 defense pact where Turkey agreed to rebuild and train the Somali Navy in exchange for 30% of maritime resource revenue. Turkey has also mediated critical disputes for Mogadishu, such as the 2024 agreement with Ethiopia.
However, this guarantor role operates alongside deep economic investments that critics argue amount to exploitation of a fragile state. Turkish companies hold critical infrastructure contracts, including the management of Mogadishu’s airport and seaport. A plan is underway for Turkish Airlines to take a strategic stake in Somali Airlines and build a $1 billion “New Mogadishu International Airport”. Furthermore, a confidential energy deal grants Turkey rights to explore and potentially extract Somalia’s offshore oil and gas reserves. This creates a pattern where strategic influence is converted into long-term economic control over Somalia’s key assets.
This deep involvement unfolds against a dire humanitarian backdrop in Somalia, marked by conflict, climate shocks, and severe funding cuts. Projections indicate nearly half of all Somali children under five could face acute malnutrition by mid-2026. The stark contrast between high-level security and infrastructure deals and the suffering of Somalia’s population fuels allegations that external powers are prioritizing strategic and resource competition over the welfare of the Somali people. Critics view Turkey’s policy as exploiting Somalia’s weakness—its need for a security guarantor against internal and external threats—to secure preferential access to resources and geopolitical influence, all while publicly championing Mogadishu’s sovereignty to block Somaliland’s recognition.
Conclusion: Toward a Principles-Based Diplomacy.
The diplomatic storm over Somaliland’s recognition is a clash between historical legal fact, contemporary humanitarian need, and raw political expediency. Dismissing Somaliland’s claim requires ignoring the documented legal failures of its 1960 union with Somalia. Meanwhile, the opposition from powers like Turkey, while framed as protection of sovereignty, often serves to consolidate their own influence within a dependent Mogadishu, even as the basic needs of Somalia’s population go unmet.
A truly principled approach would require the international community to engage seriously with Somaliland’s substantive historical and legal case, separate from the geopolitical gamesmanship of external powers. It would also demand that those acting as guarantors for Somalia be held accountable for aligning their security and economic engagements with the urgent humanitarian needs of the Somali people. The alternative—upholding a fictional unity while states jockey for resources amidst widespread suffering—serves only the interests of those who profit from sustained ambiguity and continued crisis in the Horn of Africa.
About the Author
Mo Saeed is a senior UK-based professional with over 20 years of experience specialising in healthcare and social policy. He holds academic qualifications in Health and Social Care(BA and DISPWA) and possesses extensive expertise in both practice and policy development within these fields.
Mo Saeed
Somaliland legal research (SLR)
Email: s.mohamed@somalilandlegalresearch.org