By: Horndiplomat Staff
The world must wake up to Somalia’s unfolding collapse. Recent warnings from security analysts, including a report published by ADF Magazine, suggest that Mogadishu is now surrounded by al-Shabaab and faces a real risk of falling if current trends continue. This is no longer a distant possibility. It is a scenario openly discussed by senior security officials and respected analysts.
After nearly two decades of sustained international engagement, Mogadishu is more isolated and vulnerable than at any point in recent years. International peacekeeping missions have been present since 2007, yet militant groups now operate at the gates of the capital. Security analysts note that the gains achieved over this period fall far short of what prolonged international involvement should have delivered. According to regional observers, the problem lies less with the international community than with Somalia’s political leadership.
Successive administrations pursued policies that entrenched instability. Governance specialists and Somalia civil society figures point to systematic corruption, the concentration of power within one clan, and the use of state resources to further fragment the already fragile one city administration. Instead of consolidating federalism, the federal government repeatedly clashed with its member states. The prolonged confrontations with Jubaland and Puntland—described by local monitors as among the worst and il-advised policy of current president Hashan Sheikh Mohamoud.
Today, Somalia’s federal government controls only a limited perimeter within Mogadishu. Security sources close to the government warn that the country is drifting toward a scenario reminiscent of Afghanistan before its collapse. These warnings are reinforced by the Somali military’s own admissions. According to ADF Magazine, the Chief of Defense Forces told Parliament that between 10,000 and 15,000 Somali troops were killed or wounded over the past three years, largely in battles against al-Shabaab. Such losses have severely degraded the army’s capacity to hold territory.
Recent defeats in strategic towns such as Adan Yabal, confirmed by regional security briefings, have opened corridors linking central Somalia to the outskirts of the capital. As a result, al-Shabaab now controls most of central and southern Somalia, with the exception of a handful of districts.
Multiple security analysts report that the group has consolidated control over major trade routes and collects taxes with relative impunity. Residents and local officials in Mogadishu say al-Shabaab operatives patrol neighborhoods at night, while shifting from overt violence to softer tactics designed to build compliance and public confidence.
The cost of this deterioration is borne almost entirely by ordinary Somalis. Humanitarian organizations note that civilians continue to suffer the cumulative effects of decades of war, drought, displacement, and the absence of a state capable of delivering basic security and services.
Instead of prioritizing a unified campaign against terrorism, political observers argue that Somalia’s current leadership has spent the past four years engaged in prolonged violent disputes with federal member states. These disputes included attempts to impose unilateral electoral arrangements and, according to regional diplomats, efforts to destabilize the long-standing peace of the Republic of Somaliland.
International confidence is eroding. Diplomatic and financial sources confirm that Turkey has cut its annual 30 million dollars support. The United States has also scaled back assistance, including humanitarian funding, following documented cases of the government looting of the World Food Programme aid. Health and education programs funded by donors are now being wound down.
Security analyst Matt Bryden argues that Somalia’s crisis is fundamentally political rather than military. He warns that without trust and coordination between the federal government and member states, al-Shabaab’s seizure of Mogadishu may be only a matter of time.
Somalia’s trajectory, analysts caution, is not inevitable. It is the consequence of leadership failure. Without accountability and a change in direction, further international engagement risks delaying collapse rather than preventing it.