Strategic Pathways: Somaliland’s Bid for U.S. Recognition Under President Trump

By: Abdirarshid Jeeni

In the often-turbulent Horn of Africa, the Republic of Somaliland stands out as a beacon of stability and democratic governance. Since reclaiming its independence from Somalia in 1991, it has preserved peace, held multiple competitive elections, and built resilient institutions that have endured for more than three decades. Yet, despite these remarkable achievements, Somaliland remains unrecognized by any sovereign state. This absence of formal recognition constrains its economic development, limits vital security partnerships, and prevents its full integration into the international community.

With President Donald Trump returning to office in 2025, Somaliland faces a pivotal opportunity to secure U.S. recognition. President Trump has publicly acknowledged Somaliland’s case, and discussions regarding a potential U.S. military presence in Berbera are ongoing. The moment is ripe for Somaliland to advance its international standing.

The Geopolitical Context: U.S. Interests and Somaliland’s Strategic Value

The United States approaches the Horn of Africa with a focus on counter-terrorism, maritime security, and the broader competition with China. Somaliland’s strategic location along the Gulf of Aden—adjacent to vital shipping lanes—positions it as a valuable potential ally. To capitalize on this, Somaliland must skillfully navigate the Trump administration’s two dominant foreign policy factions: the neoconservatives (NeoCons) and the America First nationalists. Although these groups often diverge in their policy preferences, Somaliland can adopt a “two-way approach” that appeals to both, framing recognition as a low-cost, high-reward policy that advances U.S. interests without deep entanglements.

Understanding the Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy Factions

Recently The New York Times has highlighted a policy division within the Republican Party under President Donald Trump, noting the marginalization of neoconservatives in favor of his “America First” agenda. The newspaper points out that Trump’s national security team in his second term reflects a broader shift away from neoconservative policies, which emphasize global intervention and U.S. hegemony, towards an “America First” approach that prioritizes domestic interests and reduced overseas commitments.

Professor John Mearsheimer argues that President Donald Trump’s foreign policy reflects a ‘tension’ between two competing impulses: the influence of neoconservatives, who push for an interventionist, hawkish agenda, and the “America First” approach, which prioritizes national interests and restraint in global engagements. Mearsheimer suggests that while Trump has at times leaned toward an “America First” policy, aiming to reduce U.S. overseas commitments, his administration has often been swayed by neoconservative advisors who favor aggressive policies, particularly toward Russia and in the Ukraine conflict.

NeoCons: Champions of Democracy and Global Leadership

During Trump’s first term (2017–2021), his administration blended “America First” isolationism with selective interventions advocated by NeoCons. The later group, including former officials committed to democracy promotion and global leadership, support assertive U.S. engagement to advance American values and counter global threats. They view foreign policy as a moral imperative, emphasizing alliances that foster stability and human rights.

America First: Pragmatism and Transactional Diplomacy

In contrast, the America First camp—led by President Trump and figures such as J.D. Vance—prioritizes direct, tangible benefits to U.S. security, the economy, and trade. This faction is skeptical of “endless wars” and nation-building, favoring pragmatic partnerships that enhance American leverage without long-term commitments. Recent analyses underscore this divide: America First advocates push for practical partnerships in Africa, while Neocons emphasize ideological alignment. Somaliland’s strategy must bridge these perspectives, with the Berbera military base serving as a unifying interest.

The Two-Way Approach

To maximize its chances, Somaliland should pursue a dual-track engagement plan. One path should appeal to NeoCon ideals of democracy and global influence; the other should target America First’s focus on economic and strategic gains. At the center of this strategy is the proposal for a U.S. military base in Berbera—a project that aligns with the interests of both factions.

Shared Priority: The Berbera Military Base

• For NeoCons – Countering China and Projecting Power:

Establishing a U.S. base in Berbera would enable the United States to counter China’s military presence in Djibouti and secure the Red Sea—a critical chokepoint threatened by Houthi attacks. NeoCons, who prioritize global leadership, would view this as an opportunity to project American power across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, reinforcing U.S. influence in the Middle East and Africa. Somaliland’s proven stability and history of cooperation with U.S. forces make it a reliable partner for such a strategic foothold.

For America First – Low-Cost Strategic Leverage:

For America First nationalists, a Berbera base represents a transactional “deal” that strengthens U.S. security without the burdens of nation-building. It offers a cost-effective alternative to larger bases, secures maritime routes, and counters China’s influence with minimal commitments. Somaliland’s willingness to host U.S. forces aligns with President Trump’s preference for partnerships that deliver tangible benefits while avoiding long-term entanglements. Recognition in exchange for basing rights is a classic Trump-style bargain, enhancing U.S. leverage in a critical region.

• Execution Tactics:

Somaliland should propose a formal agreement for the Berbera base, presenting it as a dual-purpose asset: a bulwark against China for NeoCons and a low-cost strategic win for America First. Engaging defense-focused think tanks such as the Heritage Foundation and supportive lawmakers like Senator Ted Cruz can help build momentum. High-level delegations, including President Abdullahi’s planned meeting with President Trump, should highlight these shared benefits.

Approach 1: Appealing to NeoCons—Democracy and Regional Stability

• Democratic Credentials and Human Rights:

Somaliland’s record of peaceful elections, including the 2024 presidential vote, stands in stark contrast to Somalia’s instability and the influence of Al-Shabaab. Recognition would reward self-determination and democratic governance, resonating with NeoCons’ ideological priorities. Engaging think tanks such as the Hudson Institute, which has challenged misconceptions about regional destabilization, can help make the case that recognition isolates terrorist threats.

• Addressing Somalia’s Leverage of Al-Shabaab:

Somalia’s use of Al-Shabaab as a tool to deter U.S. recognition of Somaliland is a dangerous and misguided tactic. Leveraging a terrorist group to influence geopolitical decisions undermines global peace, strengthens Al-Shabaab, and risks further destabilizing the region. The United States should prioritize Somaliland’s stability, democratic governance, and strategic value, recognizing it as a reliable partner for counterterrorism and regional security.

• Counter-Terrorism Partnership:

Somaliland’s longstanding commitment to combating terrorism and piracy should be emphasized. Formal recognition could enhance intelligence-sharing and joint operations, directly appealing to NeoCons’ focus on security. Supporting legislation such as H.R. 3992, the Republic of Somaliland Independence Act, can help build congressional support.

• Execution Tactics:

Somaliland should partner with U.S. advocacy groups and diaspora communities to host events in Washington, targeting NeoCon leaders. Media campaigns in outlets like The National Interest can frame recognition as a moral imperative.

Approach 2: Appealing to America First—Economic Deals and Transactional Gains

• Economic Opportunities and Resources:

Somaliland should highlight its untapped mineral resources—such as lithium and gold—alongside its fisheries and trade potential. Recognition could unlock U.S. investments in critical minerals, create jobs, and align with President Trump’s economic priorities. By positioning Somaliland as a hub in a pro-U.S. regional bloc, it can counter rival influences and frame recognition as a “win-win” trade deal, steering clear of aid dependency.

• Execution Tactics:

Somaliland should use channels to reach President Trump’s inner circle, leveraging MAGA support through networks and platforms like Truth Social, X (formerly Twitter), where support for recognition is growing. Proposing exclusive U.S. mining or trade agreements tied to recognition, and seeking endorsements from influential business leaders such as Elon Musk, can further strengthen the case. Envisioning partnerships in projects like SpaceX, xAI, or Starlink, and aligning proposals with the artificial intelligence era, can add contemporary relevance.

Practical Steps for Engagement

1. Strengthen Diplomatic Presence: Expand Somaliland’s Washington office and hire lobbyists experienced with all sides, including but limited to the MAGA base, NeoCon and America First factions.

2. Build Coalitions: Forge alliances with the UK, EU political establishments, and pro-recognition lawmakers, countering Somali opposition with fact-based campaigns.

3. Public and Media Outreach: Utilize platforms such as X, Truth Social, and major U.S. and European media outlets to highlight Somaliland’s successes and strategic value.

4. Mitigate Risks: Address concerns about Somalia’s leveraging Alshabaab as tool to counter the allies; by proposing phased recognition, thereby reducing the risk of fuelling conflict.

Conclusion: A Unified Push for Recognition

Somaliland’s pursuit of U.S. recognition under President Trump hinges on its ability to skillfully navigate the divide between NeoCons and America First nationalists. By appealing to shared values on one hand and pragmatic deals on the other, Somaliland can position itself as an indispensable partner for the United States in a critical region. Success would not only affirm Somaliland’s sovereignty but also advance U.S. interests in the Horn of Africa.

By framing recognition as a low-cost, high-reward policy—bolstering U.S. power projection, countering China, and securing economic gains—Somaliland can unite its allies within the Trump administration. With ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential White House meetings on the horizon, a bold and balanced approach could soon make Somaliland the world’s newest recognized nation, strengthening both its sovereignty and America’s strategic position.

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