HARGEISA, Somaliland, Oct. 21, 2026 — Somaliland has emerged as the leading candidate in a prediction market tracking which country could join the Abraham Accords before the end of 2026, according to trading data published on the online platform Polymarket.
The market places Somaliland ahead of several Middle Eastern countries, including Jordan, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, although traders remain broadly sceptical that any additional country will formally join the U.S.-brokered normalisation framework before the December 31 deadline.
Somaliland was assigned an implied probability of approximately 14% in the latest figures displayed on the platform, the highest among the listed candidates. Jordan followed at 7%, while Syria and Egypt each stood at 6%.
Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia were each priced at around 5%, with Turkey and Azerbaijan at 4%.
The figures reflect traders’ expectations based on contracts bought and sold on Polymarket rather than official diplomatic assessments or government announcements.
The market has attracted more than $1.8 million in total trading volume, including approximately $122,715 in contracts associated with Somaliland, according to the figures displayed on the platform.
Despite Somaliland’s leading position, the relatively low probabilities indicate considerable uncertainty over whether another country will join the Abraham Accords before the end of the year.
The Abraham Accords were launched in 2020 under U.S. President Donald Trump during his first term, establishing diplomatic normalisation agreements between Israel and several Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
Somaliland, which restored its sovereignty in 1991, has sought to strengthen its international partnerships and expand diplomatic and economic cooperation, particularly in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa regions.
Its strategic location along the Gulf of Aden, near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, has made maritime security, regional trade and access to international shipping routes central to its foreign policy.
However, the Polymarket ranking does not establish that Somaliland is negotiating accession to the Abraham Accords or that a formal agreement is imminent.
Under the market’s rules, a qualifying outcome requires a formal normalisation agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework before the December 31, 2026 deadline. Existing diplomatic recognition alone does not satisfy that requirement.
The probabilities are subject to change as traders respond to diplomatic developments and new information.
