Op-Ed: New Dawn for Ethiopia–Somaliland Relations: Assessing the High-Stakes Addis Ababa Summit

By: Saeed Mohamed Ahmed

The recent two-day high-level visit by Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Cirro to Addis Ababa concluded on a distinctly positive note, according to both the brief communiqué from the President’s office and corresponding statements from Ethiopian officials. Early indications suggest that the visit unfolded in a constructive atmosphere, with discussions covering shared interests in the socio-economic, political, security, and cooperationdomains.

Beyond the formal agenda, the cordial tone at the start and the cautiously optimistic conclusion underscored the meeting’s historic and strategic importance. The summit marked several significant firsts and took place amid a turbulent geopolitical climate.

Key Contextual Highlights

1. First Face-to-Face Meeting

This was the first formal, state-level meeting between President Cirro and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali. It was also the first time President Cirro met the Ethiopian leader as the head of state of the Republic of Somaliland, leading a senior government delegation on a formal invitation from Prime Minister Abiy.

2. Regional Geopolitical Flux

The summit occurred at a moment of heightened geopolitical realignment across the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia is grappling with internal political complexities while regional alliances shift rapidly.
Key regional dynamics include:

• The gradual thawing of tensions between Ethiopia and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS),

• Persistent strains with Egypt over Nile waters,

• Frosty ties with Eritrea despite recent cooperation, and

• Quiet but palpable friction with Djibouti under President Ismail Omar Guelleh.

In such an environment, the Addis Ababa summit represented a bid to recalibrate and consolidate Ethiopia’s relations with one of its most dependable neighbors—Somaliland.

3. The Fading MoU

The timing of the summit is particularly notable given the effective stagnation—if not demise—of the controversial Somaliland–Ethiopia Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The deal faced sweeping rejection from regional and international actors, including the African Union (AU), European Union (EU), IGAD, the Arab League, the OIC, and key nations such as Turkey, Egypt, Djibouti, and the Federal Government of Somalia (referred to here as Chapter 7 Somalia).

4. Great Power Competition

The meeting unfolded amid intensifying global power rivalries involving the UK, USA, China, Russia, and the EU.
These powers lack a unified approach to the Horn of Africa and the broader Red Sea–Bab-el-Mandeb corridor, regions whose strategic balance could be profoundly shaped by the outcome of Ethiopia–Somaliland cooperation.

Moving Forward: The Case for Strategic Patience

The tangible outcomes of this dialogue will emerge in the coming months. Both nations recognize their mutual strategic dependence and the reality that their cooperation underpins regional stability. However, achieving a durable, mutually beneficial partnership will require calm negotiation, trust-building, and respect for each other’s core national interests.

A successful path forward demands:

• Balancing short-term political pressures with long-term strategic vision;

• Exercising caution against opportunism and external manipulation; and

• Ensuring policy integrity and consistency amid a volatile regional landscape.

Rushed decisions or shallow political maneuvers could jeopardize the delicate progress achieved during this visit.

Lessons for Addis Ababa

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed must draw lessons from past missteps—specifically, the cost of allowing transient political figures like those in Chapter 7 Somalia to dictate Ethiopia’s strategic calculus.
During the tenure of former Somalia leader Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Ethiopia deprioritized Somaliland to court short-lived alliances. Within months, those relationships collapsed—Farmajo was ousted, and Eritrea abruptly turned against Addis Ababa, aligning with Tigrayan forces.

Somaliland, by contrast, remained Ethiopia’s consistent and reliable partner.
It is therefore imperative that Prime Minister Abiy avoid repeating this error and grant Somaliland the strategic priority it deserves. Any tacit support for actors threatening Somaliland’s internal stability or statehood will inevitably provoke defensive countermeasures.

History shows that those who have underestimated Somaliland’s resilience have often paid the price—politically, diplomatically, and strategically.

Conclusion

The Addis Ababa summit signals a potential reset in Ethiopia–Somaliland relations—anchored in realism, mutual respect, and shared strategic interests.
If both sides navigate this moment with wisdom and patience, it could mark the beginning of a more stable, balanced, and forward-looking partnership in the Horn of Africa.

About the Author:

Saeed Mohamed Ahmed is a geopolitics commentator, public policy and leadership expert and a former civil society leader. He is a development practitioner, an entrepreneur based in Hargeisa. He is the former president of Gollis University, Director of Public Relations and Media at the Somaliland’s National Electoral Commission, Senior Protection Manager at the Alight International (formerly known as American Refugee Council) and the Executive Director of SONYO Umbrella. Saeed recently writes on Somaliland’s quest for recognition.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the Horndiplomat editorial policy.

If you want to submit an opinion piece or an analysis, please email it to Opinion@horndiplomat.com.
Horndiplomat reserves the right to edit articles before publication. Please include your full name, relevant personal information, and political affiliations.