Op-Ed: The Diplomatic Algebra of Somaliland and the Current Geopolitical Calculus of the World

By: Saeed Mohamed Ahmed

Somaliland is quietly redefining its role on the global stage. Situated at the strategic crossroads of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, this ever-sovereign, subversion-victim republic has transformed its geographic advantage into a center of regional influence, economic opportunity, and diplomatic engagement.

Strategic Geography Meets Global Interest

Berbera Port is no longer just a local asset—it is a strategic gateway. Deepwater capacity, efficient management, and expansion projects have attracted the attention of the UAE, Djibouti, Ethiopia, and global investors. For the United States and European partners, Berbera represents a rare opportunity: a secure, operational port in a volatile region, ready for both commercial and security partnerships, all without the complications of formal recognition.

Djibouti’s upcoming presidential visit, or alternatively Aby’s imminent-spontaneous measure signals regional acknowledgment of Somaliland’s growing influence. Ethiopia relies on Somaliland for access to global trade corridors, reinforcing Berbera’s pivotal role in regional logistics and commerce.

Governance as Geopolitical Currency

Somaliland’s credibility is grounded in domestic reforms. Judicial independence, civil service strengthening, and economic transparency are not merely bureaucratic achievements—they are instruments of diplomacy. By aligning its policies with international standards, Somaliland has strengthened its legitimacy in the eyes of foreign governments and investors alike.

These reforms make Somaliland a reliable partner in a region often defined by uncertainty, enhancing its bargaining power and international relevance.

Navigating the Global Calculus

Somaliland operates at the intersection of multiple, sometimes competing, geopolitical currents:

• Western Powers: The U.S. and Europe view Somaliland as a strategic partner capable of stabilizing maritime routes along the Red Sea and Horn of Africa.

• Gulf States: UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia monitor Somaliland’s infrastructure and ports as extensions of their regional influence.

• Emerging BRICS-aligned actors: Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria, and other rising economies could see Somaliland as a hub for Red Sea trade, further diversifying investment flows.

The challenge lies in balancing these interests while safeguarding sovereignty and sustaining domestic reforms. Done correctly, Somaliland can translate strategic location and governance credibility into lasting global partnerships.

Conclusion

Somaliland is showing the world that sovereignty is as much about performance as it is about recognition. Its combination of strategic location, reform-driven governance, and savvy diplomacy makes it an indispensable actor in Red Sea geopolitics.

For global and regional powers alike, Somaliland is no longer a passive observer—it is a calculated, credible, and increasingly influential participant in the Horn of Africa. Its ports, policies, and partnerships are shaping the next chapter of regional strategy, proving that influence is measured not only by borders, but by vision, competence, and trust.

About the Author:
Saeed Mohamed Ahmed is a distinguished public intellectual, development strategist, and former President of Gollis University. With over 15 years of leadership in academia, civil society, and governance, Saeed has held prominent national roles, including Media & PR Advisor to Somaliland’s National Electoral Commission and Senior Project Manager at Alight International. He was also the longest serving Executive Director of SONYO Umbrella, a premier youth CSOs consortium across Somaliland. As a published writer, his work spans youth, peacebuilding, and Somali politics, reflecting deep engagement with the region’s development challenges. Saeed is also the co-author of a forthcoming book on the historic 1993 Borama Grand Conference, a landmark in Somaliland’s peacebuilding and state formation. In addition to his academic pursuits, he is the founder of GrowSynergy Ventures Group, a social enterprise pioneering sustainable agro-livestock solutions in Somaliland.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the Horndiplomat editorial policy.

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