By: Abdibasid SH, Bashir
The Horn of Africa is once again at the center of great-power rivalry. Somalia’s Prime Minister, Hamza Abdi Barre, has flown to Beijing at the invitation of the Chinese Communist Party to attend the 7th China–Arab States Expo .
Meanwhile in Washington, Somaliland’s long quest for recognition is gaining traction. The contrast underscores the region’s fragility and the deepening contest between China and the United States.
An Unrecognised Exception
Somaliland, though excluded from the international system, has maintained peace, conducted credible elections, and built functioning institutions for over three decades. In a neighborhood scarred by conflict, its stability is a striking outlier .
Mogadishu’s New Patron
Mr. Barre is expected to pitch Somalia’s potential in trade, agriculture, infrastructure, and technology at the Expo. This is more strategy than ceremony: Beijing has extended its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) across the Horn since 2017, financing ports, railways, and digital projects in Djibouti, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia .
Washington’s Opening
Excluded from BRI projects due to its unrecognised status, Somaliland might yet benefit from its outsider position. In Washington, Senator Ted Cruz has called for recognition, describing Somaliland as a “critical security and diplomatic partner”. U.S President Donald Trump has gone further, declaring recognition “on the table.”
For the U.S., engaging Hargeisa is less about altruism than about securing influence at the Red Sea’s mouth and countering China’s expanding presence.
A Region at a Crossroads
Somalia’s pivot toward Beijing and Somaliland’s growing alignment with Washington outline two diverging regional trajectories:
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Somalia further bound into China’s sphere.
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Somaliland positioned as a gateway for U.S. influence.
Recognition of Somaliland would be more than symbolic: it would reward effective governance, anchor stability, and provide Washington with a strategic foothold (Foreign Policy).
Conclusion
China’s play, led by the Communist Party, is pragmatic and transactional—binding governments through infrastructure, debt, and dependence. America’s opening with Somaliland, in contrast, leans on values: democracy, stability, and effective institutions.
For Somaliland, recognition would transform marginalisation into legitimacy. For Washington, backing Somaliland would show a willingness to reward governance, not just geography.
The competition is not only about influence but about which political model takes root in one of the world’s most fragile neighborhoods.
political model takes root in one of the world’s most fragile neighbourhoods.
About the Author
Abdibasid SH, Bashir , Development Finance Specialist with expertise in transformative FinTech, sustainable development, and development finance. Experienced across banking and insurance sectors; currently pursuing an MSc in Development Finance at Strathmore Business School. Skilled in Islamic finance, fund attraction, project financing, central banking diplomacy, and business negotiation.
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📧 Email: abdiasis.yousuf@strathmore.du | somalilandfinancialjour48@gmail.com
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