Change in politics is rarely welcomed. Those who hold power and those who benefit from existing systems often resist transformation, even when it serves the broader public good. This resistance means that meaningful reform rarely emergesorganically. It requires deliberate, top-down political will from a leadership that is bold enough to confront entrenched interests and prioritise the collective over the comfortable.
A new geopolitical reality
Somaliland now finds itself at a historic crossroads. In December, Israel became the first state to formally recognise Somaliland as sovereign. This milestone energised the public, particularly the youth, who celebrated with renewed optimism.
This recognition has also triggered significant geopolitical backlash. Several countries, especially in the Middle East, have opposed the move and begun aligning against it. A coalition led by Türkiye, and supported by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, has emerged in response.
Understanding the Opposition
The motivations of these states are varied and strategic.
For Egypt, it is all about its rivalry with Ethiopia over the Nile River. Saudi Arabia has a rivalry with the United Arab Emirates, which supports Israel’s engagement with Somaliland. Pakistan has no interest in the Horn of Africa, but is attracted to the much-needed Saudi petrodollars.
Since 2011, Türkiye has significantly expanded its footprint in Somalia, politically, economically, and militarily. Its presence includes what is widely described as its largest embassy complex globally, alongside deepening military cooperation and involvement in oil exploration.
Türkiye concluded military and economic agreements with Somalia, particularly in oil exploration. The latter seeks to align Somalia’s and Türkiye’s interests to the point where Türkiye becomes deeply involved in Somalia’s internal and external affairs. The aim is to use Türkiye’s military might, diplomatic muscle and economy to pressure Somaliland to the point of subjugation and defeat.
This growing alignment with Somalia appears aimed at consolidating influence and applying sustained pressure on Somaliland.
Internal vulnerabilities: The real battleground
Both Somalia and its allies understand a critical reality: Somaliland’s greatest vulnerability lies within.
Direct military confrontation remains unlikely. However, external actors may seek to exploit internal divisions through political destabilisation, economic pressure, or the mobilisation of discontented groups.
Somalia lacks the military and political power to invade Somaliland. But with Türkiye’s military support, particularly in drones, and with Egypt’s intelligence and internal networks, coupled with Saudi money, Somalia believes it can insert dissidents into Somaliland and mobilise groups that could trigger civil war.
The foreign coalition-building is taking shape at a time when Somaliland is struggling economically. A series of shocks, including COVID-19, the war in the Middle East, deteriorating relations with Ethiopia, and armed conflict in the eastern regions, have severely affected the economy, leaving little breathing space for recovery.
Militarily, Somaliland suffered the Las Anod armed conflict, and its once-feared military is no longer what it used to be. A protracted dispute over elections (2020-2024) weakened social cohesion and diverted politicians’ attention from the much-needed work of building and strengthening social cohesion and solidarity around common interests.
The majority of the population is young and unemployed. Thanks to social media, they can communicate easily, know what is going on in their country, and are very angry.
The urgency of meaningful reform
Somaliland cannot afford inertia. The current status quo is insufficient to revive the economy, restore public trust, address youth disillusionment and strengthen national unity
Internal resilience is the only sustainable defence against external pressure.
However, the government has yet to articulate a convincing reform agenda. Public frustration, particularly among young people, is visible and growing, yet appears largely unacknowledged. There is a widening perception that leadership is disconnected from everyday realities.
Recent economic decisions, such as responses to rising oil prices, have been widely perceived as favouring elites rather than alleviating public hardship. In a country where a significant proportion of the population lives below the poverty line, such perceptions are politically costly.
Allegations of corruption, popularised through the term “G+1” (referring to luxury homes allegedly built by officials), have further deepened public resentment, reinforcing the narrative of detachment between leadership and citizens.
Leadership, legitimacy, and responsibility
The current president, elected in 2024 with an unprecedented near two-thirds majority, holds a powerful democratic mandate. This level of support provides not only legitimacy but also political space to pursue bold reforms even in the face of resistance from entrenched interests.
That mandate is not owed to political elites or coalition partners. It is owed to citizens who voted for change.
A moment of choice
Somaliland stands at a decisive juncture. Preserving the status quo is no longer viable, not politically, economically, or strategically. The path forward requires merit-based appointments, genuine anti-corruption measures, inclusive governanceand efficient and accountable service delivery.
Failure to act risks strengthening the very external forces seeking to undermine Somaliland’s progress and aspirations for recognition.
There will always be voices urging caution, advising leaders to protect existing alliances and maintain familiar systems. But prioritising personal or political comfort over national interest is neither sustainable nor patriotic.
Conclusion: steering the future
The choice before the president is clear. He can preserve the system that brought him to power or transform it in the service of the people who entrusted him with leadership.
Only one of these paths secures Somaliland’s future.
Guleid Ahmed Jama is a lawyer based in Hargeisa, Somaliland.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the Horndiplomat editorial policy.
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