Op-Ed: Somalia Bites the Hand That Fed It: Why America Must Rethink the Failed ‘One Somalia’ Policy as Its PM Visits China

By:Eid Ahmed

Introduction

For decades, the Horn of Africa has stood as a battlefield of global influence. The United States once dominated the region, but in recent years its position has weakened as China has steadily tightened its grip. Nowhere is this clearer than in Djibouti, where America’s largest base in Africa sits side by side with Beijing’s first overseas military base. From Ethiopia to Eritrea, and from Djibouti to Sudan, China’s influence has deepened through loans, infrastructure, and political deals.

Somalia now represents the clearest sign of America’s declining leverage. Billions of dollars in aid, military support, and political backing have been poured into Mogadishu since the early 1990s. Yet Somalia remains unstable, deeply corrupt, and increasingly authoritarian. Worse still, instead of standing with Washington, Somalia’s leadership is now cozying up to Beijing. With Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s recent trip to China, the question must be asked: how long can America cling to the illusion of “One Somalia”?

The time has come to face reality: the “One Somalia” policy has failed. It has cost the U.S. lives, money, and credibility—while ignoring the real ally in the region.

The Failed ‘One Somalia’ Policy: Billions Spent, Little Gained

When the Somali Republic collapsed in 1991, two nations that had once voluntarily united—Somalia and Somaliland—returned to their original states. But the world, led by Washington, refused to acknowledge this reality. Instead, America treated Mogadishu as the sole representative of both peoples, propping it up as if the failed union could somehow be revived.

The cost was enormous. In 1993, the U.S. sent humanitarian and military forces into Somalia, only to pay a bloody price in the streets of Mogadishu during the infamous Black Hawk Down incident. Still, Washington kept playing the role of Somalia’s guardian. The logic was twofold: first, to prevent humanitarian crises from spreading beyond Somalia’s borders, and second, to contain Al-Shabab and other extremist groups before they destabilized the wider Horn of Africa.

Yet neither objective was achieved. Humanitarian aid flowed not to starving people but to the pockets of corrupt warlords and politicians. Terrorist groups like Al-Shabab entrenched themselves even deeper, launching devastating attacks in Kenya and dragging Ethiopia into bloody wars.

The numbers tell the story of failure:

• Since 2006, the U.S. has spent more than $3 billion on emergency assistance in Somalia.

• From 2011 onwards, an additional $253 million was invested in so-called “development.”

• In 2023 alone, U.S. foreign aid to Somalia reached $1.18 billion.

• Altogether, the international community—led by the U.S.—has poured over $55 billion into Somalia since its collapse.

And what has America received in return? A country still governed by warlords, plagued by terrorism, and now openly aligning with China. As the proverb goes: “You can feed a dog, but you cannot stop it from biting.”

Waiting for Mogadishu: Why America Ignored Somaliland

On the other side of this story lies Somaliland—a nation that voluntarily entered the union in 1960 but walked away in 1991 after decades of repression and betrayal.

Somaliland gained independence on June 26, 1960, and was recognized by more than 30 countries, including the United Kingdom, Egypt, and Israel. Only five days later, it entered a political union with the former Italian Somalia to form the Somali Republic.

That union, however, was never legally formalized through a ratified agreement, leaving its legitimacy in question from the start. What was meant to be a partnership quickly devolved into marginalization and repression. Mogadishu’s central government became increasingly authoritarian, subjecting Somalilanders to political exclusion, economic neglect, and systematic violence. The 1980s marked the darkest chapter, when Siad Barre’s regime waged a campaign of mass atrocities in the north, killing tens of thousands and reducing Hargeisa, the capital, to rubble.

In 1991, Somaliland reclaimed its independence and rebuilt itself from the ashes—without the benefit of international recognition. While Mogadishu descended into chaos, Somaliland quietly established a functioning democracy. It built institutions, held competitive elections, and oversaw peaceful transfers of power.

Kenya, often praised as East Africa’s democratic model, has had five presidents since independence. Somaliland, unrecognized and isolated, has already seen multiple leaders leave office peacefully, with Abdirahman Irro now serving as the elected president. By this measure, Somaliland has outpaced many of Africa’s internationally recognized states.

Yet the U.S. and its allies chose to ignore Somaliland. They believed that investing in Mogadishu might somehow resurrect the old Somali Republic. For thirty years, Somaliland was sidelined, left to survive with minimal outside support.

But things are beginning to change. Under Donald Trump’s leadership, Washington began to view Somaliland more pragmatically. Trump himself admitted his administration was “working on” recognition, while Senator Ted Cruz sent a formal letter urging recognition of Somaliland—citing its democratic record, strategic location on the Red Sea, and alignment with U.S. interests. These growing voices in Washington signal what Mogadishu fears most: the collapse of the “One Somalia” illusion.

Turning to China: Somalia’s Betrayal and Growing Authoritarianism

Somalia’s slide into authoritarianism has been steady. Former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo clung to power beyond his mandate, sparking near-civil war in Mogadishu. When Hassan Sheikh Mohamud returned to office, many hoped for a fresh start. Instead, his administration has repeated the same mistakes. Mogadishu is once again tense, opposition leaders face intimidation, and even death threats have been issued—such as when the Defense Minister, a clan ally of Hassan Sheikh, threatened Abdirahman Abdishakur, leader of the Wadajir Party, reminding him of his near-assassination attempt under Farmaajo.

The promised “one man, one vote” election now looks more like a tool for consolidation of power, raising fears of another authoritarian chapter.

China has seized on this instability. When Somaliland recognized democratic Taiwan—a move welcomed in Washington but hated in Beijing—Somalia retaliated by banning Taiwanese visas and issuing statements undermining Taiwan’s sovereignty. From that moment, Mogadishu leaned fully into Beijing’s embrace.

Now the shift is complete. Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s official visit to China openly signals Somalia’s betrayal. After decades of U.S. protection and billions in American aid, Somalia has chosen to side with Beijing and authoritarianism.

Conclusion

The question is now unavoidable: will the United States and its democratic allies continue to waste resources on Mogadishu—a government that has become little more than a client of Beijing—or will they pivot toward Somaliland?

Somaliland is strategically located at the mouth of the Red Sea, governing its own territory peacefully, practicing democracy, and aligning with Western values. Somalia, on the other hand, has become a symbol of betrayal: a failed state that bites the very hand that fed it.

The choice for Washington is now unavoidable: cling to the illusion of “One Somalia” and lose the Horn of Africa to Beijing, or embrace Somaliland as a democratic, strategic partner at the Red Sea. Recognition is no longer optional—it is a necessity.

About the Author

Eid Ahmed is a law student With a keen interest in geopolitics, diplomacy, and international relations, particularly in the Horn of Africa .

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