By Mokhtar Mahdi Aden and Farhan Bulale
China is set to enhance its presence in Africa, pledging $51 billion in loans, investments, and aid over the next three years. This raise concerns in the West about potential “debt-trap diplomacy.” This strategic engagement aims to secure resources, gain votes at the UN, and increase the international use of the renminbi, positioning China as a major player in a multipolar world while contrasting its non-interference policy with Western conditions on aid.
China’s Naval Deployment
In mid-October, China plans to deploy a new naval fleet to the Gulf of Aden and the waters off Somaliland, as reported by the state-run China Global Television Network (CGTN). The fleet, known as the 48th escort task group of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, includes the guided-missile destroyer Tangshan, the guided-missile frigate Daqing, and the comprehensive supply ship Taihu. While the Chinese government asserts that these operations aim to “build a maritime community with a shared future” and “safeguard international sea lanes,” the geopolitical implications suggest otherwise. This naval expansion follows Somaliland’s recent strengthening of diplomatic ties with Taiwan, a move that has provoked Beijing, which views Taiwan as part of its territory.
In response, China has increased its cooperation with the Federal Government of Somalia, which asserts sovereignty over Somaliland. This alignment is perceived as part of a broader strategy to challenge Somaliland’s international standing and retaliate for its recognition of Taiwan. Analysts argue that China’s naval activities near Somaliland are not routine but rather a calculated effort to project power in the Horn of Africa. This situation underscores the complex dynamics of regional geopolitics and the potential consequences for Somaliland as it navigates its foreign relations amid increasing Chinese assertiveness.
China’s Growing Influence in Africa
China’s growing influence in Africa is frequently represented through maps highlighting its projects and presence, which can distort the intricate dynamics of international relations on the continent. While it is true that China’s control over critical infrastructure and its pursuit of military footholds raise legitimate security concerns, the narrative of securitization can overshadow the active role African nations play in engaging with Beijing. Countries like Kenya are strategically negotiating investments that align with their development goals, emphasizing their sovereignty in shaping foreign relations.
Moreover, portraying Africa solely as a battleground for Chinese and Western interests diminishes the reality that many nations are adeptly balancing relationships with multiple global powers. This oversimplification risks leading to reactionary policies from Western countries, which may seek to limit China’s presence rather than engage constructively with its investments.
Ultimately, the challenge lies in ensuring that China’s influence—especially in infrastructure and digital sectors—does not erode the sovereignty of African states. How effectively these nations assert their interests will determine whether China’s presence becomes an opportunity for growth or a liability that undermines their independence.
Somaliland’s Unique Position
Somaliland, a self-declared republic in the Horn of Africa, has emerged as a beacon of democracy despite its tumultuous history. Established in 1991, Somaliland has developed a functioning administration, including a national flag, currency, armed forces, and strong institutions that provide public services. Despite significant strides, Somaliland has yet to receive widespread international recognition.
The Somaliland government is committed to securing international recognition, protecting its sovereignty, and promoting foreign direct investment. It conducts its foreign policies in line with principles of mutual respect and peaceful resolution of disputes, emphasizing regional cooperation to address challenges such as piracy and terrorism.
Somaliland’s Diplomatic Breakthrough with Taiwan
In 2020, Somaliland made a historic diplomatic breakthrough with Taiwan, which has significant implications for its relationship with China. Following a visit from the Chinese Ambassador, who urged adherence to China’s “One Somalia” policy, Somaliland’s partnership with Taiwan signaled a political shock for Beijing. Both nations, lacking full representation in the UN, have found common ground in mutual interests, including development aid and military training.
Implications for China’s Naval Expansion in the Gulf of Aden
Geopolitical Pressure: Somaliland’s partnership with Taiwan contrasts sharply with China’s “One China” policy. An increased Chinese naval presence in the Gulf could exert indirect pressure on Somaliland and its allies.
Security and Surveillance Dynamics: While China’s mission is framed as anti-piracy, its naval operations may enhance regional surveillance capabilities, impacting foreign investments in strategic locations like Berbera Port.
Economic and Strategic Caution: Increased Chinese involvement could complicate Somaliland’s investment efforts from countries wary of Beijing’s influence, prompting a strategy of neutrality.
Opportunities for Regional Diplomacy: The competition among great powers may provide Somaliland with leverage to position itself as a stable, democratic alternative.
Security Benefits Amid Risks: The suppression of piracy has benefited Somaliland’s coastal economy, but political dynamics may compel leaders to be vigilant in protecting autonomy.
Infrastructure Development: China’s investments present opportunities for Somaliland to develop infrastructure while ensuring alignment with national interests.
Human Rights Considerations: As Somaliland builds relations with Taiwan and the U.S., it must prioritize human rights to differentiate itself from other nations prioritizing economic gains.
Diversification of Partnerships: To mitigate over-dependence on any single country, Somaliland should diversify its diplomatic and economic partnerships.
Conclusion
The implications of China’s naval expansion in the Gulf of Aden present both challenges and opportunities for Somaliland. As the geopolitical landscape evolves, Somaliland must navigate its relationships carefully, balancing ties with Taiwan, the U.S., and potential investments from China. By promoting democratic values and engaging in strategic partnerships, Somaliland can position itself as a key player in the region.
Recommendations for Somaliland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation
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Strengthen Diplomatic Ties: Build relationships with democratic nations and regional partners, emphasizing shared values.
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Promote Human Rights: Ensure human rights remain central to foreign policy to encourage international goodwill.
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Enhance Economic Diversification: Actively seek investments from various countries to reduce reliance on any single nation.
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Engage in Multilateral Forums: Participate in international organizations to advocate for Somaliland’s interests.
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Invest in Capacity Building: Collaborate with partners to enhance local governance and institutional capacity.
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Focus on Maritime Security: Develop a maritime strategy prioritizing the security of Somaliland’s waters.
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Leverage Infrastructure Projects: Ensure infrastructure projects align with Somaliland’s long-term development goals.
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Enhance Public Diplomacy: Utilize media and cultural exchanges to promote Somaliland’s identity and achievements globally.
By adopting these recommendations, Somaliland can navigate the complexities of its geopolitical environment while fostering sustainable development and securing its future as a stable, democratic entity in the Horn of Africa.
About the Authors
Mokhtar Mahdi Aden is an expert in education, international relations, and economics, with 10 years of experience in the education sector and international organizations.
Farhan Bulale is a lecturer at various universities in Somaliland, specializing in social work, welfare, and international relations.