Op-Ed: Somaliland’s Quiet Statehood: Legal Clarity, Geopolitical Relevance, and the Global Britain Moment

By Saeed Mohamed Ahmed

Introduction: A Loud Silence on Somaliland

As the Horn of Africa transforms into a multipolar theater—contested by global and regional actors—Somaliland remains a paradox. Peaceful, democratic, and self-governing since 1991, the former British Protectorate has delivered where others faltered. It governs without foreign troops, builds institutions from the ground up, and anchors a vibrant civil society. Yet, its reality remains diplomatically denied. With the United Kingdom reasserting itself through its Global Britain strategy, Somaliland represents not just a historical ally but a modern-day partner. This article argues that the international community’s continued denial of Somaliland’s statehood is legally inconsistent and geopolitically counterproductive, advocating for a differentiated diplomatic approach, particularly spearheaded by the United Kingdom, to normalize Somaliland’s unique reality.

The Somaliland vs. Chapter VII Somalia Paradigm: Rebalancing International Logic

An analytical view of the Horn of Africa post-1991 reveals a paradox. On one side stands Somaliland—a peaceful, democratic, and functioning entity that withdrew from a failed union. On the other lies Somalia—recognized internationally but historically plagued by internal strife, extremism, and persistent foreign intervention. Despite this, Somalia is the one internationally recognized, while Somaliland remains in limbo.

A comparative analysis unequivocally exposes the legal and political inconsistency at the heart of current international engagement. Below, the comparative summary follows:

This stark divergence demands a fundamental reorientation of diplomatic logic—not only for the sake of fairness and international legal consistency but, crucially, for effective regional policy and stability.

From Union to Undoing: A Legal and Moral Case for Reinstatement

Somaliland’s 1991 declaration of withdrawal was not an act of secession; rather, it constituted the lawful restoration of an independence that had existed on June 26, 1960. This pre-union sovereignty was recognized by over 30 UN member states and was never legally dissolved. The purported Union with Italian Somaliland demonstrably lacked a jointly ratified Act of Union and was, in essence, a merger based on political aspiration rather than definitive legal clarity.

As the Somali Republic collapsed in 1991, Somaliland legitimately reverted to its pre-union sovereign status, invoking established principles of self-determination and uti possidetis juris—the preservation of colonial borders upon independence. Multiple authoritative legal analyses, including the 1992 Indian Lawyers’ Study and scholarly work by figures such as Bhala and Claybrook, consistently confirm Somaliland’s compliance with the Montevideo criteria for statehood:

• Defined territory

• Permanent population

• Effective government

• Capacity to enter into relations with other states

Significantly, no international court has ever refuted this claim, further strengthening the legal foundation for Somaliland’s current status.

Global Britain and the Somaliland Opportunity

Unlike the United States, whose regional presence is predominantly driven by counterterrorism and security imperatives, the United Kingdom possesses a unique historic legitimacy in Somaliland. Britain was the first nation to grant Somaliland independence, and today, the robust Somali diaspora in the UK remains a significant transnational force.

Britain’s Global Britain policy can strategically benefit by supporting Somaliland’s democratic trajectory. This can be achieved not through dramatic recognition pronouncements immediately, but via:

• Sectoral partnerships in crucial areas such as port development, education, and digital transformation.

• Quiet diplomacy and coordinated efforts with key allies like the European Union, the United States, and Gulf nations.

• Enhanced parliamentary engagement and Track 1.5 diplomacy, fostering deeper understanding and ties.

The UK’s nuanced handling of the Chagos Archipelago return to Mauritius, while strategically maintaining its base at Diego Garcia with the U.S., illustrates a pragmatic approach where sovereignty considerations and strategic interests can be effectively harmonized—a precedent applicable to Somaliland.

A Realigned Engagement Model: from Denial to Differentiation

The previous two-tiered model, which treated all Somali polities as equivalent “levels” of state-building, is demonstrably flawed. That framing must evolve to reflect the on-the-ground realities. A recalibrated Three-Tier Diplomatic Differentiation Model is herewith proposed:

• Tier I: Somaliland

• Objective: Full de jure sovereignty and international recognition.

• Tools: Bilateral trade and development partnerships, maritime demarcation, observer status in the African Union (AU) and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and strategic diaspora diplomacy.

• Rationale: Meets established statehood criteria and has been governed independently since 1991.

• Tier II: Puntland

• Objective: Transition into a decentralized federal component within a loose Somali federation.

• Tools: Economic corridors, robust regional autonomy guarantees, and joint peace/security arrangements.

• Rationale: Possesses demonstrable experience with local governance and actively seeks stability through a semi-sovereign status.

• Tier III: South-Central Somalia

• Objective: Long-term stabilization, comprehensive state reconstruction, and conflict de-escalation.

• Tools: UN-led peacebuilding initiatives, extensive security sector reform, and inclusive reconciliation processes.

• Rationale: Still recovering from prolonged conflict and lacks nationwide governance capacity.

This differentiated model moves decisively beyond the “One Somalia” fallacy, replacing it with a policy architecture founded on functional reality, not political fiction.

Maritime Borders: the next Frontier of Sovereignty

Somaliland’s land boundaries—especially with Djibouti and Ethiopia—are clearly demarcated. Even the politically sensitive boundary with Puntland is territorially known, despite administrative contestations starting from Puntland’s establishment as a temporary administration standing out from the rest of the chaotic Somalia and a political competitive edge supporting both Majertenia-led aspirations for leading the Italian Somalia.

However, the crucial question of maritime boundaries remains unprojected, due to the lacking assertive British presence in its own form rather than as part of the joint EU NATO form. In an era where the blue economy—encompassing fishing rights, seabed minerals, and offshore energy—is increasingly vital for national development, Somaliland must proactively delineate its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and continental shelf in strict accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Inaction in this domain would risk ceding de facto control to Mogadishu or opportunistic external actors. Geopolitically, definitive maritime demarcation could unlock new partnerships, secure critical resources, and reinforce Somaliland’s sovereignty where it matters most—on the map and in global commerce.

Revisiting Lewis: the Missing Consociation Blueprint  

Somaliland’s effective governance is not accidental; it is profoundly rooted in a bottom-up legitimacy. As the late I.M. Lewis meticulously detailed, Somali society is inherently more consociational than centralist. Governance in Somaliland arises from negotiated clan authority and profound consensus-building mechanisms, rather than externally imposed frameworks.

This foundational aspect has, however, been largely overlooked by IGAD and AU policymakers. The international system regrettably continues to impose top-down models ill-suited to Somalia’s intricate sociopolitical DNA. Embracing Somaliland’s indigenous, bottom-up model—meticulously built through shir-level peacebuilding, clan reconciliation, and community policing—would offer a rare and invaluable African example of grassroots constitutionalism and sustainable state-building.

Ultimately, Somaliland’s persistent demand for recognition transcends mere flags and embassies; it is fundamentally about dignity, mobility, unhindered access to essential services, and the fundamental ability to trade and travel like any other sovereign people.

Conclusion: A Quiet Strategy for a Loud Problem

Somaliland governs. It consistently delivers democratic elections, provides tangible security, facilitates trade, and maintains a peaceful civic order—all achieved without the persistent presence of foreign troops or significant international aid dependency. This represents not rebellion, but responsible statecraft.

While full de jure recognition may still be stifled by complex geopolitics, the path of normalization—including observer status in regional bodies, bilateral Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs), and the clear assertion of maritime rights—can and must move forward without delay. The United Kingdom, together with other like-minded international actors, is uniquely positioned to lead this crucial shift—not with fanfare, but with mature, targeted, and effective diplomacy. Because in the volatile storm of the Horn of Africa, Somaliland remains a beacon of calm and stability. It is imperative that the world now acknowledges this reality—with both the respect it deserves and the partnership it offers.

About the Author

Saeed Mohamed Ahmed is a policy and governance analyst, former university president, and Horn of African affairs expert based in the Horn of Africa. He writes extensively on sovereignty, development, and African diplomacy in multipolar contexts.

X @Saeed Mohamed Ahmed (Surwaale)

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