President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s return to office in May 2022 marked a familiar chapter in Somalia’s turbulent political history. Elected by a parliament chosen through a clan-based system, his leadership reflects the country’s ongoing struggle to establish a representative and stable system of governance. However, rather than focusing on national unity and peacebuilding, Hassan’s second term seems dominated by personal ambition and widespread corruption, posing a risk of Al-Shabaab taking over Somalia. Inspired by the Taliban, Al-Shabaab is emboldened by the failure of Hassan’s government.
Somalia’s federal system, established during the 2004 Nairobi Conference, was less a homegrown solution and more a foreign imposition. Spearheaded by Ethiopia and facilitated by Kenya, federalism was presented as a means to balance power among warlords and clan factions following the collapse of the central government in 1991. However, it has proven incompatible with Somalia’s social fabric.
The transitional government formed in 2004 was led by Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, a warlord from Puntland. Far from unifying the country, his administration struggled to assert authority. In 2006, the Union of Islamic Courts emerged, swept aside the warlords, and nearly toppled the fragile transitional government of Abdullahi, which was based in Baidao. Ethiopia’s intervention reversed their gains, but also catalysed the operationalisation of Al-Shabaab, the extremist faction that has terrorised the country ever since.
Hassan Sheikh’s current government is an outgrowth of that fractured legacy. His first term (2012–2017) failed to deliver meaningful reform. His second term, now underway, has further deepened the political crisis. One of his most controversial decisions was to appoint a prime minister with little political capital or authority, essentially reducing the office to a ceremonial role. This has allowed Hassan to consolidate power and pursue changes to the electoral system unilaterally to stay in power after the end of his four-year term.
Such moves are out of touch with Somalia’s reality. The federal government has limited control outside of Mogadishu. Most regions operate independently, and security in Mogadishu is maintained primarily by foreign troops. Rather than acknowledging these constraints, Hassan is choosing to rewrite the rules in his favour, ignoring the fragile nature of Somalia.
The consequences are alarming. As the federal government weakens, Al-Shabaab is gaining strength. Its expanding territorial control not only undermines national security but also threatens the wider Horn of Africa and Red Sea region. These areas are already grappling with geopolitical instability and maritime insecurity. The dominance of Al-Shabaab near the Gulf of Aden poses a direct threat to one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes. The neighbouring countries, Kenya, Ethiopia and Somaliland, will face immediate security risks.
The international community must recognise that Somalia’s crisis is not merely a domestic concern. President Hassan Sheikh’s leadership strategy, driven by personal political survival, is fuelling a vacuum that extremists are eager to fill. His ambition is not only dangerous for Somalia; it is a threat to both regional and global stability.
If action is not taken to curb his authoritarian drift, the consequences will extend far beyond Somali borders. The time to act is now.
Guleid Ahmed Jama is a lawyer and analyst based in Hargeisa, Somaliland.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the Horndiplomat editorial policy.
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