The government of Somaliland is formulating for a signing of a lethal contract with the united Arab emirates as the minister of presidency stated earlier this week on the media after he was interviewed in brief moment.
This bilateral agreement is highly unwelcomed by the people of Somaliland, they have stated” that this contract will bring a jeopardy into their nation”, Because, the people of Somaliland are worrying of that this agreement will turn their peaceful nation in to a war zone where the Arab and east African powers could battle; and the most arguable argument that is supporting this claim is strengthened by the speech of the minister earlier this week in the same interview when he said” we won’t guarantee that this agreements will bring a chaos or prosperous tendency to Somaliland “.i.e.: Somaliland can’t take the responsibility of what comes from that agreement same as emirates, also it is not known that the emirates will be a shield for Somaliland against any threats from the houtis or any other offending nations, this what somalilanders have discarded.
Hence, this military base seems premature to be signed or lobbied for because Somaliland is not in the position of having contractual capacity, it is not internationally recognized nor exchanging this with a poise bearing offer which is the most needed” a recognition”.
On the other hand, the involving bodies representing Somaliland are not to whom it concerned or minimally having the mandate to act on behalf of the administration, because the minister of defense, minister of interior affairs, general of the national army, coastal guards major and legal advisers of the nation are not involving in bargaining and decision making respectively.
They are not consulted or asked about their opinion rather other brokers are the forerunners of this deal.
No one in the government thought of the future implications, dynamics of the horn politics and Middle East proxy wars.
They didn’t assess what berbera airport deserves to be exchanged with.
On the other hand, the emirates which are part of gulf alliance also believe views against the secession of Somaliland.
They are unionists calling for a lost dream known as greater Somalia “one Somalia policy” which had already split into apart and this is one of the triggering factors that are leading to civil unpleasant. Emirate’s politics are provoking the moral of the somalilanders and wisely the landers evaluated about the impact it will have on Somaliland because a 50, 000 soldiers with their equipments, vessels, missiles and hardware which are mercenaries are poise to Somaliland because UAE population is 9.5 million in which only 11.3% are descent , hence this mercenaries may do disturbance, rape, violence and chaos indiscriminately in Somaliland since there is no aforementioned laws that Somaliland sat for such contracts are a burden to the nation too.
They can seize as well or even can colonize, so this is why the landers are campaigning for NO FOREIGN MILITARY BASE in Somaliland because such military base is trading for a war in to Somaliland.
The other worrying insight is that emirate doesn’t believe in the Somaliland national army and this can bring to distrust to the armies which they can label as a rebels defected from Somalia incase any misunderstanding emerges between Somaliland and emirate in the future.
Same as this there is no legal reference which that Somaliland sat for such agreements related to military contracts, hence in the future this may put into bleak to the faith of the agreement if it is signed.
Somalilanders are not ready for the agreement and they are not welcoming in any form, they are following the social media stating that they are against this, they are gathering at the cafes and universities trying to mobilize pressure groups against this motion.
Not only this, the clerks, chieftains and clan leaders also forwarded their statement jointly saying” that they won’t accept any interventions or arrival of Emirati troops to their soil” they vowed that they will use whatever necessary to proscribe this agreement, they also pledged to the administration” Somalia is not responsible to sign for us the agreement subtly, because we are Somaliland not Somalia”, they were also quoting J.F. Kennedy speech by saying:-
“Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.”
In here some people may ask of what is Somaliland?
Somaliland is a defacto nation in the horn of Africa which had gained its sovereignty from Somalia in 1991 after they had a hasty union with Somalia in 1960.1.july.
It has been a peace and stable for the past 25 years, they didn’t involve any federal activities since that time and they had managed to take a referendum it’s people for secession. They implemented four democratic presidential elections and lower makers.
They have their own passport, flag, currency, government bodies and will.
By the way, the intrusion of emirate into Somaliland will yield a long lasting instability in the region as well as in Somaliland itself, because this military base will be a a ground play for the gulf alliance which are migrating into the horn militarily by offending the houti Yemenis; also the emirate will fuel insurgents ( Al-shabab) in Somalia or will create another new militants in the horn since the tactics of Alshabab seems to an end.
This new arrival of emirate is not a threat to the region alone, but also it is a threat to the humanity since the tenet of emirate is :- ‘ that Somalis are SUNNI doctrinally and they will help us to whatever it takes to destroy the houti’ same as this the minister of presidency loudly clarified the same belief earlier this week.
This scenario which is so stringent will cause unrest and religious based disputes, as well as the provocation of the other non-SUNNI as well as non-MUSLIM alliances in the region. However, the emirate should keep in mind that :- this doesn’t mean that Somaliland has not it is own will to choose where it’s interest lies on let alone the religious affiliation but it is by killing one stone with multiple birds on the same tree by looking it is interest of receiving international deals and apologizing it’s friends in the horn” landers are smart enough” they are not caged by only being Islam because they belief accepting a blindly tenet based deal will result its demise diplomatically and functionally. Because, having a deal with the emirates which is a unionist believing greater Somali will result a chaos in the country, will harass our friend in the region ‘Ethiopia’ which is the first country who launched a diplomatic mission office in Hargeisa-somaliland aswell as the only nation that allows somalilanders to travel with their Somaliland passport.
What is the arab ethiopian relationship about the water?
In the recent facts, this military base has a definite relationship with intention of that Arabs to conquest the horn of Africa in order to save their brothers in-interest ‘Egypt’ which had a long lasting dispute with Ethiopia along the Nile water for the past 5 decades and that was escalating day after a day.
So that, emirate’s deal is under cover for the gulf coalition interest as whole, because after the failure of Somalia to conquer the Ogaden region, in 1979, Anwar Sadat openly threatened Ethiopia with a war over the Nile saying “the only matter that could take Egypt to war again is water.” Afterward, several separatist groups saw success in their efforts to destabilize Ethiopia. The Eritrean Peoples’ Liberation Front (EPLF) was a recipient of arms and funds generously given to them by Egypt, among other states, would later become the backbone of the rebel forces during the nearly two decades of civil war in Ethiopia that eventually brought the end of Mengistu Hailemariam’s communist rule in 1991.
Another Wiki leaks document quoted a high-level Egyptian intelligence as saying: “there will not be a war. If it comes to a crisis, we will send a jet to bomb the dam and come back in one day, simple as that. Or we can send our special forces to block/sabotage the dam.
But we aren’t going for the military option now. This is just contingency planning. Look back to an operation Egypt did in the mid-late 1970s; I think 1976 when Ethiopia was trying to build a large dam. We blew up the equipment while it was traveling by sea to Ethiopia.”
Hence, since the long strategic operational plans of the Arabs is to destabilize our only neighboring country that we have mutually exclusive interests in aspects of people, socio-culture, economics and security; we should have not intricate if it is not signed carefully with full exchange of recognition. Otherwise it will lead our relationships with Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya to abate.
Somali wisdom says:- you can’t choose your neighbor once u inhabit but you can choose how you are going to deal with”
Jaarkaaga ma dooran kartid haddiiba aad degtay, se macaamil fiican waad dooran kartaa.
The landers say:- emirate we are not ready for this deal which is not offering our recognition because berbera deserves to buy for us that minimally, otherwise we will have a very patriotic cabinet in the near future that can bargain with other nations to do so; but those guided you don’t have the faith of the people so think twice.
Minister mohamud hashi, Somaliland doesn’t care about being a Sunni or shi’a but we care for recognition policy sir, so if the emirates are willing to accept our secession let us welcome them otherwise, don’t lead them in to Somaliland.
Dear emirate the people of Somaliland are pledging their ministers and president to answer for these questions?
What is the interest of Somaliland about this contract?
2. Is the emirate still unionist for the greater Somalia or not?
3. Do we have a contractual capacity to sign contracts with such bodies since we are not recognized?
4. What is the impact of this to our friends in the horn and diplomatic relations?
5. Do we have any guarantee about the safety and the validity of this deal?
6. Will the emirate recognize us?
7. Why the concerned ministers and bodies are not involving in such agreements?
8. Do we have a legal firms that are witnessing this agreement?.
9. Why we are weaponizing for a war against houtis and shi’a?.
10. Emirates can have a thousands of other alliances so will they be a part of the troops that are inhibiting in berbera?.
This is what the public majority are worrying of, because they don’t have a faith in this incumbent president who is made non judgmental by several attacks of illness and age.
Hence, this seems a peril or endangering Emeriti property if they sign this agreement with the government since the people represented by silanyo administration are not willing to on fang it.
I would like to allude to the government of emirate to avoid this disputable contract in which the people of Somaliland are not welcoming since their interest which is recognition is not there!. Also the other astonishing story I would like to share with the UAE is that the government’s cabinet do not have consensus in this agreement.
The foreign affairs and corporation minister of Somaliland stated yesterday when he was in Addis-Ababa “that he will not sign any deal which is not bearing the national interest” , while the deputy minister of presidency has stated in debate held by local TV “that the agreement was signed” so this controversial speaks are also a clear message to the UAE.
Military base in Somaliland is a national peril not a safeguard.
By. Mohamed Duale Editor-in-Chief HornDiplomat Tweets @MohamadDuale
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